So Stan let his ego get in his way. I'm talking about General Stanley McChrystal, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. You see, first he headed US Special Forces in Iraq, operating beyond the law, and then he realised that to get a promotion he needs to play the politics and adopt General Petraeus's "surge" strategy. Everything was working to plan. All he needed to do was implement a "proven" strategy and get his extra star and become the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Simples. Those Civs are easy to manage, aren't they? Well, so he thought and, in a moment of boredom (he couldn't fly back to Afghanistan because of Eyjafjallajökull) said as much to the Rolling Stones' journalist Michael Hastings.
Whilst obviously in admiring awe of Stan the Man Hastings is still a good journo and did the unexpected: he published McChrystal's (and his crew) comments suggesting he has only limited respect for the constitutional subordination of the US military to the US government in general and the Commander in Chief - the US President - in particular. More importantly, McChrystal was under the illusion that he is so important to the US strategy that he can get away with it. And boy he got that wrong. Within 24 hours he found his backside firmly on the White House pavement. For those of you (that's you Big Stan) who thought Obama is a lily-livered pushover, I guess it is now clear who's the boss.
But what does that mean to the US strategy in Afghanistan? Obama is sticking by his decisions. He decided to try the tough way with the 'surge'. He said he will review the strategy after 12 months. Nothing has changed. He will review it in December. What can we expect then? My guess is a strategic u-turn or, as they call it in politics, a pragmatic response to changed circumstances.
Why? The key problem is that the American people have no idea what they are in Afghanistan for. Catching Osama Bin Laden? 9 years, at least $500bn and more importantly, costing the lives of more than 1,000 American soldiers looks like a steep price. Destroying Al-Queda? They've already moved to operate from other countries, most worryingly Pakistan. Beat the Taliban? Clearly the US has failed in that. They are now stronger than in 2004. Nation re-building? For that you need to have had a nation to re-build. Afghanistan has never really qualified as a nation.
I can think of only two explanations. The first is that the US is in Afghanistan to save face. After 9 years, at least $500bn and costing the lives of more than 1,000 American soldiers, just leaving with one's tail between one's legs is not a great result. The second, and only rational explanation I can think of, is that the US is in Afghanistan to ensure that Pakistan does not collapse and its nuclear weapons end up at the hands of terrorists. The problem is that the current strategy, which pushed Al-Queda and the Taliban deeper and deeper into Pakistan, is in all likelihood accelerating its disintegration rather than preventing it.
So, if a strategic a u-turn can avert this catastrophic outcome, it is in my book better than a failed attempt at saving face.
PS 545km down. 455km to go.
Tuesday, 29 June 2010
Sunday, 27 June 2010
No country for old men
Shows you just how much I know - I thought England will beat Germany. How wrong was I? A big shame though. Was hoping for a big feel-good-factor which will get the English spending and pump a bit of growth into the economy. I am putting my money on a double-dip.
The shame is that this was supposed to be the golden age of English football. The Premier League is on the way down and the English players are not getting any younger. For most of them this is the last World Cup. Lampard, Ferdinand, Gerrard, Terry, Ashley Cole and the rest will be deep into their 30s next time round. The younger players - Walcot, Johnson, Milner, Lennon? I wouldn't bet an espresso on. If they were as good as their inflated pay cheques suggest they would be in the next round. Rooney? Should I say any more?
And still, I cannot blame the players. You see, I will be inconsistent if I did. As you may recall, a few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of the manager in today's football, and how the old foxes of world football are dominating the game rather than their over-paid protégés. So, with the demise of England the finger must be pointed at the Italian sage - senior Capello. The case for the prosecution rests on three points: (1) indecisiveness regarding the keeper, (2) inability to create and sustain team spirit and (3) under-estimating the importance of pace in the modern game. Germany scored 4 times. In all 4 cases they did so by out-pacing Terry and Upson whether to the ball or into position.
Looks like football is becoming more and more a young man's sport. more worryingly, this seems to be the case across the board. Look at tennis. In 1991 Jimmy Connors reached the semi-final of the US open. He was 40. Now you are toast at 26. Roger Federer at 28 is 'the old man'. Kareem Abdul Jabaar? Played into his 40s. George Foreman - heavy-weight champion at 45. Sprinting used to be something athletes would mature into. No longer. And look at football. Remember Dino Zoff? He captained Italy to the World Cup at 40. England's biggest promises Rooney and, do you remember him - Michael Owen - have been at their most explosive by the age of 20. All of which I find depressing. Really depressing.
PS 540km down. 460km to go.
The shame is that this was supposed to be the golden age of English football. The Premier League is on the way down and the English players are not getting any younger. For most of them this is the last World Cup. Lampard, Ferdinand, Gerrard, Terry, Ashley Cole and the rest will be deep into their 30s next time round. The younger players - Walcot, Johnson, Milner, Lennon? I wouldn't bet an espresso on. If they were as good as their inflated pay cheques suggest they would be in the next round. Rooney? Should I say any more?
And still, I cannot blame the players. You see, I will be inconsistent if I did. As you may recall, a few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of the manager in today's football, and how the old foxes of world football are dominating the game rather than their over-paid protégés. So, with the demise of England the finger must be pointed at the Italian sage - senior Capello. The case for the prosecution rests on three points: (1) indecisiveness regarding the keeper, (2) inability to create and sustain team spirit and (3) under-estimating the importance of pace in the modern game. Germany scored 4 times. In all 4 cases they did so by out-pacing Terry and Upson whether to the ball or into position.
Looks like football is becoming more and more a young man's sport. more worryingly, this seems to be the case across the board. Look at tennis. In 1991 Jimmy Connors reached the semi-final of the US open. He was 40. Now you are toast at 26. Roger Federer at 28 is 'the old man'. Kareem Abdul Jabaar? Played into his 40s. George Foreman - heavy-weight champion at 45. Sprinting used to be something athletes would mature into. No longer. And look at football. Remember Dino Zoff? He captained Italy to the World Cup at 40. England's biggest promises Rooney and, do you remember him - Michael Owen - have been at their most explosive by the age of 20. All of which I find depressing. Really depressing.
PS 540km down. 460km to go.
The 3-Lions
So, Germany again. Not the best of omens, I know. And still, for some reason I feel that England are going to get through. Not that they played well so far. And that's probably why. They made it through without playing well. Without any outstanding player and without the famous English spirit. England are through by doing 'just enough'. Mostly, because they did not concede goals (I give the only goal to it's rightful scorer - Rob Green). That doesn't mean that England can win the cup. But that should be enough against the Germans.
You see, the Germans are not that good either. Yes, they beat Australia. But that's because the Ossies were naive enough to think they should press Germany up the field and got caught out on the counter-attack. We all know England will never do that. Pressing up the field? No need when you have two solid rows of four. And, also, it's very tiring.
Take all that into account and I am rather confident. Never easy, but 3:1 to England is my bet.
PS 530km down. 470km to go.
You see, the Germans are not that good either. Yes, they beat Australia. But that's because the Ossies were naive enough to think they should press Germany up the field and got caught out on the counter-attack. We all know England will never do that. Pressing up the field? No need when you have two solid rows of four. And, also, it's very tiring.
Take all that into account and I am rather confident. Never easy, but 3:1 to England is my bet.
PS 530km down. 470km to go.
Tuesday, 22 June 2010
The lost generation
So, finally, we now know what the ConLib coalition stands for. The budget is out and the choices made in it are relatively clear. The most significant measure outlined is a dramatic reduction in welfare services which, as stated by Osborne, grew under Labour by 45% in real terms, thereby rendering the UK structurally bankrupt.
Whilst Newsnight has struggled to identify who will suffer most from this budget, to me it looks rather clear; cuts in welfare spending will impact most those in need of welfare support. If I am not mistaken, these are less likely to be the affluent and healthy. Rather it may impact the poor and ill. Possibly most important, the suggested cuts are likely to impact the job prospects of the young.
Whilst the UK has managed to maintain relatively low unemployment overall, unemployment is rife amongst the 20-something year old. The UK is genuinely risking losing an entire generation born in the late 1980s who are now even less likely to get a job and, by the time the economy picks up in 2-4 years will find themselves unemployable. This is the big risk. A lost generation will impact the UK for many years to come; economically, socially and culturally.
PS 525km down. 475km to go.
Whilst Newsnight has struggled to identify who will suffer most from this budget, to me it looks rather clear; cuts in welfare spending will impact most those in need of welfare support. If I am not mistaken, these are less likely to be the affluent and healthy. Rather it may impact the poor and ill. Possibly most important, the suggested cuts are likely to impact the job prospects of the young.
Whilst the UK has managed to maintain relatively low unemployment overall, unemployment is rife amongst the 20-something year old. The UK is genuinely risking losing an entire generation born in the late 1980s who are now even less likely to get a job and, by the time the economy picks up in 2-4 years will find themselves unemployable. This is the big risk. A lost generation will impact the UK for many years to come; economically, socially and culturally.
PS 525km down. 475km to go.
Sunday, 20 June 2010
Old friends
Met MGF A&S for lunch today. We agreed to meet at S.O.S. aka Smith of Smithfield - a NY style place at the London equivalent of the meat-packing-district. It is where I go when I want to pretend I am cool [I would have said "pretend I am still cool" but, as you know, I never was]. It has diner-style food but with loud music and drinks; especially the renowned S.O.S. Bloody Mary. At night it's a bar. More importantly, it is next door to Fabric. For those of you not cool enough to know [and I am one of 'you'] it's "one of London's premier clubs". MGF S, who is so cool he's book, brought it to my attention [if you don't know what 'book' is - I didn't - it is the default predictive-text word for cool].
Anyway, it's been a while since we met A&S. Bumped into them on the street on the way to S.O.S. actually. I was in a good mood (unusual) and genuinely happy to see them (naturally). So, as one would, I went over to greet MGF A with a kiss & a hug and, foolish a man as I am, expected the same. But no. It was like hugging an iceberg. Just ask the Titanic what that feels like.
It's funny sometimes with old friends. You don't always know what to expect when you meet up. On the one hand, the fact that you are still in touch after so many years, and we are talking about more than 25 years here, is guarantee that you at least like each other. On the other, especially if you haven't seen each other for a while, so much has happened since you've last met that a dissonance between reality and expectations is almost guaranteed.
Meeting old friends every so often is a bit of a lottery then. You are likely to lose but, luckily, the odds of winning are better. For me, as unlikely as it is that my old friends will want to carry that title much longer, I will do my best to stick with them, despite the risk of disappointment. If only because I am so bad (with a capital so) at making new ones :-)
PS 520km down. 480km to go.
Anyway, it's been a while since we met A&S. Bumped into them on the street on the way to S.O.S. actually. I was in a good mood (unusual) and genuinely happy to see them (naturally). So, as one would, I went over to greet MGF A with a kiss & a hug and, foolish a man as I am, expected the same. But no. It was like hugging an iceberg. Just ask the Titanic what that feels like.
It's funny sometimes with old friends. You don't always know what to expect when you meet up. On the one hand, the fact that you are still in touch after so many years, and we are talking about more than 25 years here, is guarantee that you at least like each other. On the other, especially if you haven't seen each other for a while, so much has happened since you've last met that a dissonance between reality and expectations is almost guaranteed.
Meeting old friends every so often is a bit of a lottery then. You are likely to lose but, luckily, the odds of winning are better. For me, as unlikely as it is that my old friends will want to carry that title much longer, I will do my best to stick with them, despite the risk of disappointment. If only because I am so bad (with a capital so) at making new ones :-)
PS 520km down. 480km to go.
Saturday, 19 June 2010
Guilt
She was walking down the path. All around her green, green, grass and mighty, old, oaks. She was at the foot of the hill but the asphalt was sloping down. Her body started tilting forward and her legs struggled to catch up. Shuffling, as quickly as she could, she realised she was losing her balance. And then, as if in slow motion, she fell. Head first, gliding forward. She tried, but her hands could not block the fall. Her face hit the asphalt.
For a few seconds the world stopped. The wind no longer rustling the leaves on the trees. Dogs chasing balls no more. Quiet. And then she cried. Blood gushing from her mouth. Dripping on her shirt. The pain too sharp to contain. The cry growing into a howl. The tears flowing down her cheeks.
Finally, I managed to reach her. My 18 month old little one (MLO). Lifting her from the path, I held her in my arms feeling the pain in her mouth as if it was my own, licking my lips from the blood on hers. The guilt was burning in my chest.
PS 510km down. 490km to go.
For a few seconds the world stopped. The wind no longer rustling the leaves on the trees. Dogs chasing balls no more. Quiet. And then she cried. Blood gushing from her mouth. Dripping on her shirt. The pain too sharp to contain. The cry growing into a howl. The tears flowing down her cheeks.
Finally, I managed to reach her. My 18 month old little one (MLO). Lifting her from the path, I held her in my arms feeling the pain in her mouth as if it was my own, licking my lips from the blood on hers. The guilt was burning in my chest.
PS 510km down. 490km to go.
Wednesday, 16 June 2010
It's here
After four years of waiting it is finally here - the World Cup. Two years of qualification, $billions in advertising and (as mentioned here before) a one-off opportunity for Africa to transform its global image. A stage for the world's biggest sporting heroes to show us all what they got: Drogba, Ronaldo, Rooney, Messi, Torres, Ribery. And still, the airwaves are dominated by two words most of us have never heard before: Vuvuzela and Jubalani.
The vuvuzela (English pronunciation: /vuːvuːˈzeɪlə/) , sometimes called a "lepatata" (its Tswana name) or a stadium horn, is a horn commonly blown by fans at football matches in South Africa. The instrument is played using a simple brass instrument technique of blowing through compressed lips to create a buzz, and emits a loud monotone. And what a loud monotone it is. THE, and I use capitals sparingly, THE most annoying noise I have ever heard.
Jabulani, meaning 'rejoice' in Zulu, is the World Cup ball. If by 'rejoice' one means 'lose all control over' I guess it is a good name. If it means make people - footballers and football fans - happy, it is clearly a misnomer. Let's be clear. If the players can concentrate on the game despite the vuvuzelas, which I doubt, they have no idea how to put the Jabulani in the net. This is the lowest scoring World Cup ever. Boring!
Here's my plea to the stars mentioned above. Please, please, make an effort. So far, not so good. You did not score a single goal between you. In fact, only one of you managed to find himself on the winning side. Please. Put some time into practicing with the Jabulani before the next match and start performing. Without a major improvement our only memory of this World Cup would be the bloody vuvuzela. Wouldn't you (over-paid, childish narcissists) rather we remebered you?
PS 505km down. 495km to go.
The vuvuzela (English pronunciation: /vuːvuːˈzeɪlə/) , sometimes called a "lepatata" (its Tswana name) or a stadium horn, is a horn commonly blown by fans at football matches in South Africa. The instrument is played using a simple brass instrument technique of blowing through compressed lips to create a buzz, and emits a loud monotone. And what a loud monotone it is. THE, and I use capitals sparingly, THE most annoying noise I have ever heard.
Jabulani, meaning 'rejoice' in Zulu, is the World Cup ball. If by 'rejoice' one means 'lose all control over' I guess it is a good name. If it means make people - footballers and football fans - happy, it is clearly a misnomer. Let's be clear. If the players can concentrate on the game despite the vuvuzelas, which I doubt, they have no idea how to put the Jabulani in the net. This is the lowest scoring World Cup ever. Boring!
Here's my plea to the stars mentioned above. Please, please, make an effort. So far, not so good. You did not score a single goal between you. In fact, only one of you managed to find himself on the winning side. Please. Put some time into practicing with the Jabulani before the next match and start performing. Without a major improvement our only memory of this World Cup would be the bloody vuvuzela. Wouldn't you (over-paid, childish narcissists) rather we remebered you?
PS 505km down. 495km to go.
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