Tuesday 29 June 2010

He's the boss

So Stan let his ego get in his way. I'm talking about General Stanley McChrystal, the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. You see, first he headed US Special Forces in Iraq, operating beyond the law, and then he realised that to get a promotion he needs to play the politics and adopt General Petraeus's "surge" strategy. Everything was working to plan. All he needed to do was implement a "proven" strategy and get his extra star and become the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Simples. Those Civs are easy to manage, aren't they? Well, so he thought and, in a moment of boredom (he couldn't fly back to Afghanistan because of Eyjafjallajökull) said as much to the Rolling Stones' journalist Michael Hastings.

Whilst obviously in admiring awe of Stan the Man Hastings is still a good journo and did the unexpected: he published McChrystal's (and his crew) comments suggesting he has only limited respect for the constitutional subordination of the US military to the US government in general and the Commander in Chief - the US President - in particular. More importantly, McChrystal was under the illusion that he is so important to the US strategy that he can get away with it. And boy he got that wrong. Within 24 hours he found his backside firmly on the White House pavement. For those of you (that's you Big Stan) who thought Obama is a lily-livered pushover, I guess it is now clear who's the boss.

But what does that mean to the US strategy in Afghanistan? Obama is sticking by his decisions. He decided to try the tough way with the 'surge'. He said he will review the strategy after 12 months. Nothing has changed. He will review it in December. What can we expect then? My guess is a strategic u-turn or, as they call it in politics, a pragmatic response to changed circumstances.

Why? The key problem is that the American people have no idea what they are in Afghanistan for. Catching Osama Bin Laden? 9 years, at least $500bn and more importantly, costing the lives of more than 1,000 American soldiers looks like a steep price. Destroying Al-Queda? They've already moved to operate from other countries, most worryingly Pakistan. Beat the Taliban? Clearly the US has failed in that. They are now stronger than in 2004. Nation re-building? For that you need to have had a nation to re-build. Afghanistan has never really qualified as a nation.

I can think of only two explanations. The first is that the US is in Afghanistan to save face. After 9 years, at least $500bn and costing the lives of more than 1,000 American soldiers, just leaving with one's tail between one's legs is not a great result. The second, and only rational explanation I can think of, is that the US is in Afghanistan to ensure that Pakistan does not collapse and its nuclear weapons end up at the hands of terrorists. The problem is that the current strategy, which pushed Al-Queda and the Taliban deeper and deeper into Pakistan, is in all likelihood accelerating its disintegration rather than preventing it.

So, if a strategic a u-turn can avert this catastrophic outcome, it is in my book better than a failed attempt at saving face.

PS 545km down. 455km to go.

Sunday 27 June 2010

No country for old men

Shows you just how much I know - I thought England will beat Germany. How wrong was I? A big shame though. Was hoping for a big feel-good-factor which will get the English spending and pump a bit of growth into the economy. I am putting my money on a double-dip.

The shame is that this was supposed to be the golden age of English football. The Premier League is on the way down and the English players are not getting any younger. For most of them this is the last World Cup. Lampard, Ferdinand, Gerrard, Terry, Ashley Cole and the rest will be deep into their 30s next time round. The younger players - Walcot, Johnson, Milner, Lennon? I wouldn't bet an espresso on. If they were as good as their inflated pay cheques suggest they would be in the next round. Rooney? Should I say any more?

And still, I cannot blame the players. You see, I will be inconsistent if I did. As you may recall, a few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of the manager in today's football, and how the old foxes of world football are dominating the game rather than their over-paid protégés. So, with the demise of England the finger must be pointed at the Italian sage - senior Capello. The case for the prosecution rests on three points: (1) indecisiveness regarding the keeper, (2) inability to create and sustain team spirit and (3) under-estimating the importance of pace in the modern game. Germany scored 4 times. In all 4 cases they did so by out-pacing Terry and Upson whether to the ball or into position.

Looks like football is becoming more and more a young man's sport. more worryingly, this seems to be the case across the board. Look at tennis. In 1991 Jimmy Connors reached the semi-final of the US open. He was 40. Now you are toast at 26. Roger Federer at 28 is 'the old man'. Kareem Abdul Jabaar? Played into his 40s. George Foreman - heavy-weight champion at 45. Sprinting used to be something athletes would mature into. No longer. And look at football. Remember Dino Zoff? He captained Italy to the World Cup at 40. England's biggest promises Rooney and, do you remember him - Michael Owen - have been at their most explosive by the age of 20. All of which I find depressing. Really depressing.

PS 540km down. 460km to go.

The 3-Lions

So, Germany again. Not the best of omens, I know. And still, for some reason I feel that England are going to get through. Not that they played well so far. And that's probably why. They made it through without playing well. Without any outstanding player and without the famous English spirit. England are through by doing 'just enough'. Mostly, because they did not concede goals (I give the only goal to it's rightful scorer - Rob Green). That doesn't mean that England can win the cup. But that should be enough against the Germans.

You see, the Germans are not that good either. Yes, they beat Australia. But that's because the Ossies were naive enough to think they should press Germany up the field and got caught out on the counter-attack. We all know England will never do that. Pressing up the field? No need when you have two solid rows of four. And, also, it's very tiring.

Take all that into account and I am rather confident. Never easy, but 3:1 to England is my bet.

PS 530km down. 470km to go.

Tuesday 22 June 2010

The lost generation

So, finally, we now know what the ConLib coalition stands for. The budget is out and the choices made in it are relatively clear. The most significant measure outlined is a dramatic reduction in welfare services which, as stated by Osborne, grew under Labour by 45% in real terms, thereby rendering the UK structurally bankrupt.

Whilst Newsnight has struggled to identify who will suffer most from this budget, to me it looks rather clear; cuts in welfare spending will impact most those in need of welfare support. If I am not mistaken, these are less likely to be the affluent and healthy. Rather it may impact the poor and ill. Possibly most important, the suggested cuts are likely to impact the job prospects of the young.

Whilst the UK has managed to maintain relatively low unemployment overall, unemployment is rife amongst the 20-something year old. The UK is genuinely risking losing an entire generation born in the late 1980s who are now even less likely to get a job and, by the time the economy picks up in 2-4 years will find themselves unemployable. This is the big risk. A lost generation will impact the UK for many years to come; economically, socially and culturally.

PS 525km down. 475km to go.

Sunday 20 June 2010

Old friends

Met MGF A&S for lunch today. We agreed to meet at S.O.S. aka Smith of Smithfield - a NY style place at the London equivalent of the meat-packing-district. It is where I go when I want to pretend I am cool [I would have said "pretend I am still cool" but, as you know, I never was]. It has diner-style food but with loud music and drinks; especially the renowned S.O.S. Bloody Mary. At night it's a bar. More importantly, it is next door to Fabric. For those of you not cool enough to know [and I am one of 'you'] it's "one of London's premier clubs". MGF S, who is so cool he's book, brought it to my attention [if you don't know what 'book' is - I didn't - it is the default predictive-text word for cool].

Anyway, it's been a while since we met A&S. Bumped into them on the street on the way to S.O.S. actually. I was in a good mood (unusual) and genuinely happy to see them (naturally). So, as one would, I went over to greet MGF A with a kiss & a hug and, foolish a man as I am, expected the same. But no. It was like hugging an iceberg. Just ask the Titanic what that feels like.

It's funny sometimes with old friends. You don't always know what to expect when you meet up. On the one hand, the fact that you are still in touch after so many years, and we are talking about more than 25 years here, is guarantee that you at least like each other. On the other, especially if you haven't seen each other for a while, so much has happened since you've last met that a dissonance between reality and expectations is almost guaranteed.

Meeting old friends every so often is a bit of a lottery then. You are likely to lose but, luckily, the odds of winning are better. For me, as unlikely as it is that my old friends will want to carry that title much longer, I will do my best to stick with them, despite the risk of disappointment. If only because I am so bad (with a capital so) at making new ones :-)

PS 520km down. 480km to go.

Saturday 19 June 2010

Guilt

She was walking down the path. All around her green, green, grass and mighty, old, oaks. She was at the foot of the hill but the asphalt was sloping down. Her body started tilting forward and her legs struggled to catch up. Shuffling, as quickly as she could, she realised she was losing her balance. And then, as if in slow motion, she fell. Head first, gliding forward. She tried, but her hands could not block the fall. Her face hit the asphalt.

For a few seconds the world stopped. The wind no longer rustling the leaves on the trees. Dogs chasing balls no more. Quiet. And then she cried. Blood gushing from her mouth. Dripping on her shirt. The pain too sharp to contain. The cry growing into a howl. The tears flowing down her cheeks.

Finally, I managed to reach her. My 18 month old little one (MLO). Lifting her from the path, I held her in my arms feeling the pain in her mouth as if it was my own, licking my lips from the blood on hers. The guilt was burning in my chest.

PS 510km down. 490km to go.

Wednesday 16 June 2010

It's here

After four years of waiting it is finally here - the World Cup. Two years of qualification, $billions in advertising and (as mentioned here before) a one-off opportunity for Africa to transform its global image. A stage for the world's biggest sporting heroes to show us all what they got: Drogba, Ronaldo, Rooney, Messi, Torres, Ribery. And still, the airwaves are dominated by two words most of us have never heard before: Vuvuzela and Jubalani.

The vuvuzela (English pronunciation: /vuːvuːˈzeɪlə/) , sometimes called a "lepatata" (its Tswana name) or a stadium horn, is a horn commonly blown by fans at football matches in South Africa. The instrument is played using a simple brass instrument technique of blowing through compressed lips to create a buzz, and emits a loud monotone. And what a loud monotone it is. THE, and I use capitals sparingly, THE most annoying noise I have ever heard.

Jabulani, meaning 'rejoice' in Zulu, is the World Cup ball. If by 'rejoice' one means 'lose all control over' I guess it is a good name. If it means make people - footballers and football fans - happy, it is clearly a misnomer. Let's be clear. If the players can concentrate on the game despite the vuvuzelas, which I doubt, they have no idea how to put the Jabulani in the net. This is the lowest scoring World Cup ever. Boring!

Here's my plea to the stars mentioned above. Please, please, make an effort. So far, not so good. You did not score a single goal between you. In fact, only one of you managed to find himself on the winning side. Please. Put some time into practicing with the Jabulani before the next match and start performing. Without a major improvement our only memory of this World Cup would be the bloody vuvuzela. Wouldn't you (over-paid, childish narcissists) rather we remebered you?

PS 505km down. 495km to go.

Saturday 12 June 2010

Half way there

So, just finished another 10km and reached a major milestone - 500km. Those of you betting on me quitting, I hope you put a lot of money on it. A great feeling being half way there, or as we say in Israel: "flipping the record". Not those from the Guinness book of records but those black vinyl discs with music on them. For you younger ones, my cooler friends told me they are the stuff DJs "scratch". I wouldn't know.

So, midway, and I can say that taking on my 1,000km challenge and raising money for the NSPCC was the best decision I made all year. Personally, it gave me an out from the day-to-day. Whatever happens during the day is put in perspective during the run. And, more importantly, doing a bit of charity work genuinely gave me a different outlook. The niggling discomforts of life seem much smaller when you stop focusing on them. Similarly, the good things in life feel much bigger and are more appreciated. The added benefit is that it had a similar effect on my kids.

Anyway, still a lot to go. Hope it will go as smoothly as it did so far, tfu tfu tfu (that's me spitting to ward off the evil eye). So, 500km down. 500km to go.

Friday 11 June 2010

Beyond Petroleum

The Gulf of Mexico is being flooded with petrol. "A drop in the Ocean" the BP CEO initially said. Somehow oil seems to have a disastrous effect on living things in its vicinity even when there is relatively little of it. And all because of a leaking pipe. Sounds trivial. It isn't.

Not from a technical perspective - the world's best engineers are struggling for weeks to resolve the situation. Not from an environmental perspective - it will take months if not years to clean. Not politically - it looks like the US government has managed to vent internal tensions towards an external foe. The greatest impact yet is likely to be on the prosperity of British pension holders. With 1/7 of British pension funds dependent on BP and the company losing half of its market cap and likely to spend billions on compensating the victims of the spill, British pensioners will be at least 10% poorer.

The funny thing is that, potentially, the most significant impact of this ecological disaster is that it is galvanising US public opinion against big oil. For the first time people are starting to feel they really do need to look "Beyond Petroleum". Ironically what started as, some say, a cynical branding exercise by BP's previous CEO - Lord Browne - may end up as reality. With big oil lobbyists a bit more subdued (still by no means shrinking violets), Obama's environmental legislation may be passed by the Senate. Call me an optimist, but I can see a silver lining.

PS 490km down. 510km to go.

Wednesday 9 June 2010

Jarhead

Stumbled upon Jarhead - a Sam Mendes 1st Gulf War movie. Jarhead is a reference to US Marines and the famous Marine haircut which makes their heads look like jars. Heard it was good. Surprisingly it is. Lots of style, like any Mendes film. A bit fetishist about its hero. But, unusually, it has substance. It conveys the banality of war. It also represents American soldiers as dropouts from normal society. Didn't buy the former. Was interested in the latter.

What does it say about American soldiers if they chose to join the army to escape the failure of their civilian lives? Is it even true? The reason to think it may be the case is that the US military machine did its utmost to eliminate the individual from having genuine impact on the battlefield. Weapons are designed to be idiot proof. Unfortunately, that is meaningless when war is fought in the twilight zone between policing and insurgency as it is in Iraq & Afghanistan. People matter. The human element is at the fore. If Jarhead is in anyway representative of the American military, we're f***ed.

PS 485km down. 515km to go.

Tuesday 8 June 2010

Africa's big bet

I've never been to Africa. Most people haven't. And still, the vast majority of us have very clear images of the vast continent. For me the first thing that comes to mind is wildlife. The elephants, cheetahs, lions, giraffes. The second is that of human suffering. The famines, HIV, civil wars, corruption. As difficult as it is for me to admit it, I spend more time thinking and learning of the former than the latter. Either way, it only demonstrates my complete ignorance of the realities of this beautiful continent.

With a population of over 1 billion people and more natural resources than anywhere else on the planet, there must be so much more to the place. Rich areas alongside the poor. Advanced technology next to tribes that have not experienced any. A reconciled democracy where less than 20 years ago thrived a racist, supremist regime. And still, I am confident that most people who live outside Africa share my ignorance. Friday this can all change.

The Football World Cup is starting Friday and suddenly a fifth of humanity is going to set its sights on the events unfolding in South Africa. Hopefully, what we will see is simply the best footballers in the world contesting football's greatest prize in the game's most modern facilities. Not wildlife or human suffering but football as it is played in Old Trafford, the Nou Camp or the San Siro. We will see a modern nation leading a normal life on an enormous scale. And if, hopefully, that will be the case, the World Cup will do more to Africa than any other event in recent history. It will make it 'normal'. A place where cost of money goes down because the risk premium is reduced. Where corporations can safely invest. Where people can create their own future without depending on hand downs from other countries.

Or not. The Football African Cup of Nations only earlier this year did the opposite. When the Togo team's bus was ambushed by armed robbers killing players and staff it reinforced the Western image of Africa. The stampede in a friendly earlier this week did the same. Any disturbance will be broadcast to the same billion people around the world, crushing hope and squashing opportunity.

The World Cup is Africa's big bet. For the sake of the 1 billion Africans and with them the rest of us, I hope it would be the great success this suffering continent deserves it will be.

PS 480km down. 520km to go.

Sunday 6 June 2010

A city of contradictions

Just back from a short break in Paris - the city of love. What a wonderful place. So different from London. Obviously, London is great. The cultural capital of the world. The most cosmopolitan city on Earth. A place anyone can feel comfortable in.

Paris is different. It will claim it is the culture capital of the world, because it will ascertain nothing comes close to French culture. What better evidence one needs than French Pop? It is clearly cosmopolitan - all French speakers are welcome, and as long as they are white and born to French ancestry they will be considered 1st class citizens. Comfortable? No one should feel comfortable. One should revere the scale and importance of anything Parisian. Comfortable is for Provence, not for the greatest city in the world.

And that's exactly why I love Paris. Because everyone is taking themselves so seriously. Because everything happening in the present is linked so firmly to the past. And because the French are not shy about introducing draconian regulations that will keep things as they were. The primary manifestation of this is the success of local shops. In London every street looks exactly the same; Tesco, Gap, Boots, Whetherspoon pub. In Paris local shops are protected by long-term leases which mean that the chains are kept at bay. Every Boulangerie is an independent. Two of the best of them are within 100m from the hotel we stayed in. You know they are different not by the pastries on offer - they are all the same traditional fare - but by the croissant. One goes for the crispy brown version. The other has just enough flour in it to shape the butter into a crescent.

MGF S&M who joined us for a couple of days could not disagree more on which was better. MGF S was so dismissive of the latter she said: "I don't even need to try it. I know exactly what it will taste like". Their views on baguettes were even more extreme. You see, like true Parisians they care about this sort of thing. And to think that the croissant is an Austrian invention to mark the defeat of the Turks; eating the crescent being the culinary equivalent of sticking up two fingers. [Those of you who know me well will think I made the Austrian reference up. But no. MGF M told me the story, which means it must be true. The man is a font of historical knowledge.]

But how does one explain this persistent individualism and perfectionalism of every artisan, chef, shop-keeper or intellectual? My guess is that it is necessary if one is to feel meaningful in face of the enormity of the institutes of the French state. The Louvre is a mile long. Napoleon's tomb is bigger than Wembley. They are designed to make the individual feel small, and in an odd way, pushes them toward an excellence that makes them bigger.

PS 475km down. 525km to go. And, BTW, got it completely wrong with BP. Don't even think it's reached rock-bottom yet. It could implode, and with it most British pension funds.